After the Exit Polls, Whose Entry?
Praful Bidwai
Sahara Samay, 3 May 2004
After the second phase of the four-phase Lok Sabha elections, a qualitative change has come about in India's political scenario. The NDA has lost the edge with which it started. It looks very, very vulnerable. And for the first time since December, the possibility of an anti-NDA secular government has reappeared.
The change has not come about because of the April 26 exit polls. Rather, these polls themselves resulted from a cumulative narrowing of the gap between the NDA and the Opposition. Over the past thee months, the pollsters' forecasts of the NDA's Lok Sabha tally have steadily decreased from 330-340 seats, first to 280-300, and now to levels below the 273 half-way mark.
On the ground, there have been dramatic changes in the popular mood-with the Congress registering a big surge of support in major states like Uttar Pradesh, Andhra and Maharashtra, with the NDA further splintering, and with some non-NDA parties gaining significantly.
Estimates based on three major exit polls (NDTV-Indian Express, India Today-Aaj Tak and Star News-Telegraph), give an average of just 261 seats to the NDA. This is the lower end of the BJP's own survey (by Sudhanshu Mittal) which gives 260-270 seats to the Alliance. The NDTV forecasts just 235-255 seats for it.
The next two rounds of polling will, on reasonable assumptions, prove tougher for the NDA than the first two. To get a Parliamentary majority, the NDA must win the same proportion of seats (50 percent) as it did in the first two phases. But the contests are harder. And the Opposition is now stronger.
The fight will be especially tough in NDA-unfriendly states like West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Himachal and Delhi. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP faces an uphill task against the Samajwadi Party and Congress. The NDA can make limited gains in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, and potentially sizable gains only in Punjab.
The NDA is badly riven with dissension. In Bihar, the Janata Dal (United) and BJP are squabbling. JD(U) state president Nitish Kumar is so miffed with George Fernandes that he sulked away from his own constituency for two days.
The decisive or balancing factor will be UP. There, the scales will tilt depending on whether the BJP can stop the erosion of its Brahmin support and successfully scatter the Muslim vote.
As things stand today, the Lok Sabha will probably be hung, with the NDA getting 235-270 seats, the Congress and allies scoring 160-210 seats, and the rest about 100-120. The Lok Sabha's final shape could change dramatically even with marginal shifts in these shares.
The NDA's non-BJP constituents, which contributed 120 seats in the last Lok Sabha, could end up with 60-70 seats. If the BJP itself goes down to 150-160 seats, the NDA would drop to about 220 seats.
Broadly, three major scenarios seem possible, although not equally probable. The order of probability will depend upon the observer's judgment and on what so-far-undecided voters will do at the hustings. According to an Outlook survey, as many as 14 percent of electors are undecided.
Not to be discounted is the possible abuse of the not-so-reliable Electronic Voting Machines.
Scenario I: The NDA scrapes past the 273-mark or falls short of it by 10-15 seats. In this case, it can potentially count on many small parties, like the Asom Gana Parishad, Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal, Om Prakash Chautala's INLD and possibly, the PMK in Tamil Nadu, plus the support of tiny factions from the Northeast. There is of course the TDP from Andhra, although Chandrababu Naidu has ruled out joining the NDA. Even erratic Farooq Abdullah might join.
This is the best-case scenario for the BJP which can retain its power structure intact even while offering concessions to its new "partners". Even so, a 20-seat fall in its own score of 182 would be a moral setback.
Scenario II: The NDA wins only 230-240 seats. Here, the smaller parties' support won't be enough. The NDA will need one sizable partner with 20 to 35 seats, or at least an ally like the Nationalist Congress, plus some "outside" support.
The first option will mean roping in the Bahujan Samaj Party or Samajwadi Party. The BSP would demand a heavy price, which can seriously erode the BJP's credibility and make the government totally unstable-witness the three BJP-BSP divorces in UP.
An even tougher option is to bring in the SP. The SP will find it extremely difficult to support the NDA-despite the "compromises" it made with the BJP by accepting its tacit support to its state government and its nominee as Speaker. It risks losing its secular credentials and its Muslim core-support. This will prove unaffordable in the not-too-far-off Assembly elections. Mulayam Singh Yadav is vociferous that it won't support the NDA. But BJP strategists aren't ruling that out.
No matter which mid-sized parties support the NDA, whether from outside or inside, the BJP will pay a terrible price. Can it allow one of their nominees to become Deputy Prime Minister without damaging L.K. Advani's status? Will the RSS permit that? Or will a compromise be worked out under which Vajpayee steps down in Advani's favour? (Is that what he meant by saying that the party has already "chosen his successor" and that he wants to give up politics and relax?)
Vajpayee may not want to head such a government because of his egoistic craving for a place in posterity. But his colleagues won't easily give up.
Whatever the "solution", this will damage the BJP gravely, eroding its political activity completely. Such a government won't be stable.
Scenario III: The Congress's tally (with core-allies RJD, NCP and Telengana Rashtra Samiti) reaches or exceeds 200, while the NDA drops to a similar level. This can happen if the Congress does really well in UP because of Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, and also makes gains elsewhere.
With such bulk strength, the Congress and allies could rope in the Left parties (45-50 seats), the DMK-led Progressive Democratic Alliance in Tamil Nadu, and potentially, the SP or BSP. For this, the SP would have to shed its aversion to the Congress, especially demonstrable for the past five years.
Such a government could be relatively stable-if proper negotiations on a common programme and sharing of posts are held. The SP's support would be crucial to stability. The BSP may be willing to join or support it (for a price of course). But then, stability could prove elusive.
Yet another option would be to reinforce this coalition through a new alliance between the RJD and sections of the JD(U) which are disgruntled with George Fernandes, but swear by secularism. Alternatively, groups like Ajit Singh's and Chautala's might be roped in.
There is no guarantee that such a combination won't be messy or can last. But it will at least break the six year-long dark spell of communalism and elitist globalisation. Maintaining such a government will pose a challenge. But that won't be any more daunting than turning this election around.
There is, of course, a fourth scenario, which is far less likely. This is a non-Congress-non-BJP government, supported by the Congress from the outside. But to be more durable than the 1996-98 United Front, this will need prior agreement on a well-drafted programme.
The situation is fluid. It's hard to predict which scenario will materialise. But a return to secularism has become a real possibility.
Copyright 2004 Sahara Samay
|
