Coalition Course

The Friuli-Venezia-Giulia region of Italy includes Venice but most of it is far less glamorous than the city of the Doges. This is the colder, greyer, rainier Italy, with panini-flat landscapes - at least until you get to the hills near Trieste - and no world-class monuments. Towns like Pordenone and Udine are clean, hard-working, rather boring places with near-zero unemployment and rightwing leanings. The Lega Nord of Umberto Bossi (now said to be terminally ill) and the ex-fascists of Gianfranco Fini's Alleanza Nazionale have strong bases here (although the two leaders loathe each other). Like Silvio Berlusconi's own Forza Italia, both these parties are in the centre right coalition for the upcoming national elections on April 9-10. If they win, Berlusconi will remain prime minister and who knows what will befall Italy.

I've just spent three days in Friuli-Giulia campaigning with and for my friend Sabina Siniscalchi, who is standing for the Rifondazione Communista party. Although Rifondazione joined in overthrowing Romano Prodi's earlier government in the 90s, it has now joined the broad centre left coalition - somewhat miraculously cobbled together by Prodi - that hopes to put him back into power. The obvious need to unseat "il Cavaliere", as Berlusconi styles himself, now trumps every other political consideration.

For example, there is an American airbase near Pordenone, quite possibly stocking nuclear arms. Rifondazione is fiercely opposed to this presence and to Italy's participation in the Iraq war. Although Prodi's governmental programme merely says it will "revisit" the agreements covering American bases, not expel them, Rifondazione has still signed on, knowing that some of its coalition partners are "philo-americani", American-lovers. However, the risk of fascism, pure and simple, seems to be the alternative and uniting for these elections is therefore crucial.

Sabina comes out of the strong Italian left Catholic tradition. She was for years head of the major development NGO Mani Tese ("Outstretched Hands") and more recently of the Banca Etica, which offers alternative, co-op and ethical banking services. Her decision to leave the NGO world to stand for parliament and her presence at the top of Rifondazione's list in Friuli Giulia reflect both the dire state of Italian politics today and the depths of the changes that have occurred within the party she has agreed to represent.

We gave talks for various audiences in Pordenone, Udine and Trieste, but Sunday was a largely free day and, with Giulio Lauri, Rifondazione's regional secretary as guide, we walked around Trieste, the handsome, mostly nineteenth century city at the top of the Adriatic where James Joyce lived for six years. His bronze effigy stands on the bridge leading to the British Institute where he taught; I gave him an appreciative pat. White tents of medieval royal battlefield design called gazebos were dotted about the main squares. Here you could meet the supporters and sometimes the candidates of the various electoral lists.

[Culinary note: This blog is supposed to be political, not touristic or gastronomic, but if you're in Trieste, head for the Osteria Istriana facing the port at Riva Grumula 6 to enjoy a memorable meal. This unassuming, un-posh restaurant serves imaginative, yet deliciously traditional, food of superb freshness, respecting every individual savour. Order different things so you can share.]

With friends from the party, we went to see Nanni Moretti's new film Il Caimano ["The Crocodile"] which takes on Berlusconi - played, improbably, by the dark-haired and bearded Moretti himself. Using il Cavaliere's own statements, it shows how fascism can begin. The film, just released and showing in about 400 cinemas all over the country, is causing huge controversy in Italy, with Moretti all over the television and the papers. As Prodi said: "Let's hope it does the campaign more good than harm."

Berlusconi managed to change the electoral law just a few months ago to make it more likely he can win. One no longer votes for a candidate but for a party; Berlusconi labels all those in the centre left coalition as "communist" - patent nonsense but possibly effective. You put an X on the party's symbol but the ballot does not tell you who will be sitting in parliament on your behalf - you're supposed to know that before you enter the polling place. Since I was thoroughly confused about how the system works, I sat down with Giulio in the cavernous, art deco Caffe San Marco in Trieste for a short course.

Here is the simple version, because in Friuli-Giulia and some other semi-autonomous regions, the system is even more complicated, with regional and town council elections that will take place the same day. The numbers may vary from region to region, but there are about eight parties in the centre left, pro-Prodi coalition and about six in the pro-Berlusconi one, with a smattering of smaller, splinter parties that refuse to belong to either. Each party's leader is at the top of the list in every region - so Rifondazione's head man Fausto Bertinotti comes ahead of Sabina even though he will choose to represent a different region when the votes are actually counted.

Now come the higher mathematics. The system is partly majoritarian but also proportional. The coalition that wins the most votes (by adding all the votes of all the coalition partners) gets 55% of the seats. Leave aside the different methods of calculating seat allocation for the lower house or Camera (national basis) and the Senate (regional basis) which gives a distinct advantage to Berlusconi, so that he may be able to hang on to the Senate even if he loses the Camera.

For the latter, assume the Prodi coalition parties win a total vote of 48%, the Berlusconi ones 46% and the splinter groups share the rest (approximately what the polls are saying now). This means the Prodi bunch gets 55% of the total seats, or 346 out of 630, and Berlusconi's boys and girls get 284. If Rifondazione receives, say, 7% of the total vote, this will correspond to 14.5% of its coalition's share of 48% or 50 seats in the Camera. Got that? I thought not, but let's keep moving relentlessly forward. These 50 seats will then be distributed among the regions on the basis of their population: for example, Lombardia has 9 million people to Friuli-Giulia's 2.1 million so Rifondazione is likely to win three or four seats in Lombardia to just one for Friuli-Giulia.

Still, I'm pretty sure Sabina is going to win and next time I see her I shall have to call her "the Hon", or rather Onorevole.