A Common Baltic Future

A Common Baltic Future
Boris Kagarlitsky
The Moscow Times, 22 July 2004

For Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, joining the European Union on May 1 was a break with the past. Paradoxically, both Baltic nationalists and members of the ethnic Russian population in the three countries have high hopes for life within a united Europe.

Nationalists are convinced that membership in the EU and NATO signals a definitive reorientation to the West, an end to the Baltic states' historical ties to Russia, and provides a guarantee against future encroachment from their enormous neighbor to the East

Ethnic Russians, on the other hand, hope that their situation in Latvia and Estonia will change for the better. If EU laws on the rights of ethnic minorities were applied in full, both governments would be forced not just to grant full civil rights to all Russians living within their borders, but also to take their interests into account in matters of education, cultural policy and local government. For example, attempts by the Latvian government to drastically reduce the availability of Russian-language instruction in public schools flagrantly contradicts European norms.

As it happens, both Baltic nationalists and the ethnic Russian minority in those countries are in for a big disappointment. Western Europe needs the Baltic states because it needs Russia. German knights and merchants of the Hanseatic League built Riga and Tallinn in the Middle Ages as gateways to the East. Russian raw materials and markets are no less important to Western businessmen today. The farther the EU expands to the East, the more important Russia becomes.

It does not follow from this, however, that the situation of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states will improve. Simply put, the status of the Russian language and those who speak it in Latvia and Estonia is not affected by the state of those countries' relations with Russia.

From Moscow's perspective, Baltic Russians are not especially interesting or valuable. Ethnic Russians in the Baltic states, on the other hand, recognize full well that they are better off than most people in their "historical homeland." This applies not just to their higher standard of living. It is also true that noncitizens in Latvia and Estonia are likely to have more control of their lives than full-fledged citizens of Russia.

Eurocrats in Brussels have no need for Euro-Russians, either. The expanded EU is a mass of contradictions and problems. The economies of its member countries are developing at different rates. Measures to contain inflation in the euro zone choke production. The Scandinavians don't like the single currency. The pro-American foreign policy of Poland and other countries in the "new Europe" frustrates attempts by France and Germany to stake out an independent position vis-a-vis the United States. The burgeoning European bureaucracy stifles initiative. The situation in the Balkans is still far from resolution. And to top it all off, the ranks of the euroskeptics are swelling. In this context, the problems of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states are just one more headache.

The appearance in Strasbourg of Tatyana Zhdanok, the lone representative of the recently formed Russian Party of the European Union, will not change things. She will be regarded as one more exotic addition to an already colorful new European Parliament.

It would be wonderful if the "Russian problem" were solved in Europe, but no one is going to take this task upon himself. If the interests of minorities were a concern for Western politicians, Latvia and Estonia would not have been admitted to the EU until they had brought their laws in this area into line with European norms.

This does not mean that the situation of Russians in the Baltic states is hopeless. It does mean that their future depends on how successful they are in forging alliances with other groups within Latvia and Estonia themselves. Democracy will not function successfully until all members of society enjoy civil rights in equal measure. The burden of overcoming discrimination cannot and must not fall exclusively on those who suffer from discrimination. This problem affects Estonians and Latvians as well.

In the end, Estonians, Latvians and Russians must build their future together. If they don't realize this soon, the prospects of all three groups will be equally gloomy.

Copyright 2004 The Moscow Times