Sunday's Two Big Winners
Boris Kagarlitsky
The Moscow Times, 8 December 2005
Rarely has a local election generated as much interest in political circles as last Sunday's City Duma contest. Muscovites and the local press have traditionally shown even less interest in the makeup of their municipal legislature than the residents of major provincial cities. The process was tightly controlled by the mayor's office, so the names and political affiliations of future deputies were known in advance. Voters in the capital, saturated with big-time politics, paid little attention to local races.
This campaign was different, but not because the City Duma had a higher profile than before. By the end of the year we'll have forgotten who the new deputies are, but we'll remember the election itself for a long time to come.
Formally, three parties emerged victorious: United Russia, which took 28 out of 35 seats; the Communist Party, which received 17 percent of the vote and four seats; and Yabloko, which on a joint ticket with the Union of Right Forces, or SPS, managed to clear the 10 percent barrier and take three seats. Upon closer inspection, however, none of these parties has any cause for celebration.
United Russia couldn't lose. It had the backing of the entire government machine, including the election commissions at the district and city levels. Yet United Russia's landslide victory was achieved with extremely low voter turnout, and opposition journalists maintain that even these low numbers were inflated. Muscovites have never turned out in large numbers for local elections, but this campaign was notable for the aggressiveness of the political parties involved.
By staying away from the polls, many people vote with their feet against the regime and the current political system. In Sunday's vote, this group far outnumbered United Russia voters. This should serve as a warning to the leadership, but it will likely fall on deaf ears.
The joint Yabloko-SPS list received far fewer votes than the parties had received in previous elections when they ran separately. The "bourgeois" electorate voted for stability and United Russia. For the doctors, teachers and students who are dissatisfied with the current regime, Yabloko isn't radical enough. The Moscow intelligentsia has veered sharply to the left in recent years and has little affection for Yabloko and SPS.
The case of the Communist Party is the most complicated. In numerical terms, Sunday's result was outstanding. Not only will the party be represented in the City Duma for the first time, it also doubled its numbers in Moscow from the State Duma election two years ago. Party leaders had reason to declare that their slump at the ballot box was over. And for the Communists, nothing else matters.
It's no secret that the Communists' success owed entirely to the fact that Dmitry Rogozin's Rodina party was stricken from the ballot. If Rodina had been in the race, the Communists would not have cleared the 10 percent barrier for representation in the City Duma. In other words, the Communists - an opposition party - have the regime to thank for their good fortune.
Communist Party leaders have always been careful to stay on good terms with the Kremlin, and after this showing they will lie particuarly low. As a result, the party's success on Sunday will actually weaken it politically. Activists spoiling for a fight will have to look elsewhere - not that this is anything new.
A stand-off between the Communist Party and Rodina is inevitable, but it's less clear how the Communists will be able to combat Rodina's appeal. In theory, they could counter Rogozin's nationalism with their own internationalism, but in fact they'll do just the opposite. The Communists will try to beat Rodina at its own game, and they will lose, as the City Duma campaign demonstrated. The recycling of ideas and progaganda typical of German National Socialism in the 1920s comes naturally to Rodina. The party is effectively promoting the ideas of racial hatred and ethnic cleansing in Russian society. The old-fashioned hacks who run the Communist Party have a long way to go.
There were two big winners in Sunday's election. First and foremost was the presidential administration, which by getting rid of Rodina showed once more that the only voters who count are sitting in the Kremlin. The second big winner was Rodina, which showed the Kremlin that it is the only serious political force in the country. Rodina is not an opposition movement but an alternate party of power waiting in the wings. And Rodina, unlike United Russia, is a real political party. Rogozin can afford to bide his time.
Copyright 2005 The Moscow Times
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