The Korean Peninsula

Introduction

The Korean Peninsula, being one of the last remaining Cold War standoffs, remains a delicate and unstable region. Reconciliation between the DPRK and the ROK is of the highest importance to not only the Korean peoples, but to the region as a whole and, in fact, the prospects for world peace. Special attention has to be given to the process of normalization of relations by Korean actors as well as by international actors, being both governmental and NGO's.

Besides the expected setbacks and incidents, a number of hopeful developments are noteworthy. Inter-Korean borders are slowly opening, enabling joint activities by organisations from North and South. Also, the efforts made by the EU to give momentum to the whole process are of interest. Most prominent in this issue of ASEM WATCH is the announcement of the International Conference on Korean Reconciliation and Reunification for global Peace, to be held August 13th - 14th, in Seoul (ROK), organised by an international committee, consisting of a number of Korean NGO's and international partner organisations, among which is TNI.

For more information, go to: Korea Conference Page

Inter-Korean Joint Summit Celebration begins at Mt. Geumgang today
Korea Herald, 15 June 2001
By Kim Ji-ho Staff reporter

About 400 South Koreans arrived in Mt. Geumgang, North Korea, yesterday to attend the "grand symposium on Korean unification," which will take place today as the sole inter-Korean joint event commemorating last June's historic summit between the Korean leaders. The civilian event was proposed by the North, and no government-level programs will be shared between Seoul and Pyongyang today, the first anniversary of the summit. The South Korean visitors, comprised of social organization officials, religious leaders, academic figures and journalists, will meet about 200 North Korean representatives in the scenic mountain. "The symposium and other programs scheduled for Friday and Saturday will help further inter-Korean civilian exchanges," said an official at a task force formed to prepare for the event. Tomorrow, the representatives of the two Koreas will climb Mt. Geumgang, on the North's east coast, where they will hold joint events, including kite-flying. South Koreans will return home later in the day.

South - North Exchange Anniversary Messages

Korea Herald, 16 June 2001
By Kim Ji-ho Staff reporter

In their first official contact in three months, South and North Korea yesterday exchanged messages on the first anniversary of the historic summit between their leaders. "By announcing the landmark North-South Joint Declaration, the two sides were able to put an end to the long-standing confrontation, and promote reconciliation and cooperation during the past year," the North's message said. The note, delivered through the border truce village of Panmunjom, was signed by the chief North Korean delegate to the inter-Korean cabinet-level talks. Jon Kum-jin, the North's senior cabinet councilor, represented Pyongyang in the past ministerial talks.

The South was led by the unification minister. The North's message called for the South to cooperate with the North in blocking "foreign forces' intervention" in dealing with bilateral affairs. Pyongyang usually refers to the United States as foreign forces. In its message, the Seoul government urged the North to hold the second round of the inter-Korean summit as soon as possible.

In light of the prolonged deadlock in relations between the two governments, a civilian "grand symposium on national unification" was held at the North's scenic Mt. Geumgang earlier in the day. In another event yesterday, more than 700 South and North Koreans began celebrating the June 15 communique at Mt. Geumgang in the North. The commemorative events include a symposium on unification.
Following the event, the two sides issued a joint statement criticizing Tokyo's authorization of school history textbooks that are accused of glossing over Japan's wartime wrongdoing. "We strongly protest the distortion of history by Japanese rightists, a crime aimed at reviving militarism," the statement said. The South Korean participants will return home today, after climbing Mt. Geumgang along with their North Korean counterparts.

EU-delegation Visit to Korea

Excerpts from press releases by the Swedish EU-2001 Presidency Web Site July 3rd, 2001

On May 2 - 4, an EU delegation, led by Swedish Prime Minister Persson, accompanied by High Representative Dr. Javier Solana and Commissioner Chris Patten, visited the Korean Peninsula, holding talks with Chairman Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang and with President Kim Dae-jung in Seoul.

The initiative to this trip was born in December last year, when President Kim Dae-jung visited Stockholm and held talks with Prime Minister Persson. President Kim emphasised the important role Sweden could play during its term as acting EU-President, taking in account Sweden's long diplomatic relations on the Korean Peninsula.

The main purpose of the visit was to manifest the great importance which the EU attaches to a continuation of the policy of reconciliation between the two Koreas. The Korean peninsula represents the last remains of the Cold War, and it would benefit not only the region but the whole world if relations between North Korea and South Korea could be normalised. The historic meeting in Pyongyang last year between their two presidents was a very important first step. The EU wants to help to make this process irreversible, and this was explained both in Pyongyang and in Seoul.

Other issues discussed included a dialogue between the EU and North Korea on human rights; the missile question; confidence-building measures; and also the prospects for economic reform.

On May 4th, in Seoul Prime Minister Persson commended ROK President Kim Dae-jung for his "lifelong work for democracy and human rights in South Korea and East Asia in general, and for peace and reconciliation with North Korea in particular". Also, he spoke about his visit to the DPRK, saying: "It gives me great pleasure to report that we have had open and constructive talks with Chairman Kim Jong Il. He sends his warmest personal regards to you, Mr President. He is looking forward to meeting you again.

We left, dare I say, with the impression that your North Korean counterpart is firmly committed to implementing last year's Joint Declaration. In our talks with chairman Kim, we reached an understanding on a number of matters of common concern.

We believe that our visit has served its purpose. Every step towards opening and reconciliation brings the process closer to a point where it becomes irreversible."

Dogfight over Seoul

Far East Economic Review, 5 July 2001
by John Larkin - Seoul

Companies from the United States, Europe (France) and Russia are battling to win a multi-billion-dollar contract to provide South Korea's new fighter aircraft. The final decision could have deep repercussions for Seoul, its security and its international relationships

Opposite the Yongsan United States Army base in central Seoul, the lights are on into the dead of night at South Korea's Defence Ministry. Inside the building, officers work round the clock on one of the biggest arms deals in the country's history-the FX jet-fighter programme. They're under orders not to leak any news of their progress-virtually every military phone is tapped. Some use friends' cellphones for sensitive calls. "Maybe you know this is a military phone," a bemused senior officer tells the REVIEW. "We are working hard on this. We call it the Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Friday, Friday project."

High-flying careers ride on one contract to supply 40 jet fighters to South Korea's air force at an estimated cost of $4 billion. Which one of the four bidders-Boeing of the US, Russia's Rosvoorouzhenie, the European consortium Eurofighter and France's Dassault Aviation-is in the lead is the biggest and best-kept secret in town. Boeing was rumoured to have led early on. But the contest has tightened, creating a huge political headache for Seoul's presidential Blue House, which would like to sign off on the military's choice by October.

The timing couldn't be worse for Seoul. Since the Korean War ended in 1953 it has bought most of its heavy weaponry from the United States, which has 37,000 troops on its soil. But relations with Washington have deteriorated this year over the Bush administration's frosty attitude toward President Kim Dae Jung's engagement of North Korea. Sources in Kim's ruling Millennium Democratic Party speak of fears within the Blue House that rejecting Boeing's bid could widen the rift between the two allies over North Korea.

"Pyongyang would be more tempted to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington," says Kim Sung Han of Seoul's Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. But selecting Boeing's F-15K, the newest version of its F-15E Eagle dual-role fighter and attack aircraft, which experts say is based on an older design than the European fighters, could create the perception that Seoul had caved in to the Washington lobby. This would fuel anti-US sentiment at home and damage the ruling party's liberal support base ahead of a presidential election next year. Says Kim Sung Han: "South Korea is in a really delicate moment here."

As crucial as it is to South Korea's readiness to face the North Korean military threat, the significance of Seoul's choice spreads even wider. The F-15 assembly line in St. Louis, Missouri, could face closure if the Seoul deal is lost, after failing to win contracts in Greece and Israel. "The line would die," says Richard Aboulafia, director of aviation for Teal Group, a Virginia-based consultant to the aerospace industry. "The only thing keeping it alive is low-level US Air Force procurement. Partly, they're keeping the line alive until the Koreans make a decision."

Boeing's main competition is from the European offerings-Eurofighter's Typhoon and Dassault's Rafale fighter. Aviation analysts say another loss by Boeing would be a big boost for European companies in the battle against US heavyweights for supremacy in the global aerospace market, which is worth $10 billion a year. Teal Group believes Boeing has a 50% chance of winning. But it estimates that Boeing's share of the global fighter market could drop by a few percentage points if it loses. "Taking a deal this size off the Americans would be astonishing," says a European diplomat assisting the Eurofighter bid. "It's a real opportunity for us and the French."

Boeing is pulling out all the stops to make sure that doesn't happen. President George W. Bush pushed Boeing's bid to visiting President Kim in Washington in March. Secretary of State Colin Powell did the same with then-Foreign Minister Lee Joung Binn. Boeing executives flew to Seoul early this year to lobby. A ruling party lawmaker recalls being visited by three Boeing executives accompanied by Republican Sen. Christopher Bond of Missouri, and House Democratic Leader Richard Gephardt, a St. Louis native. He then met the same men at a dinner hosted by the US ambassador. "The Boeing people came with the politicians. I was very surprised," he says.

Such robust networking is standard in the arms trade and entirely legal. Boeing points out that French President Jacques Chirac made his own entreaties when he visited Seoul last year with Serge Dassault, chairman of Dassault Aviation. Nonetheless, Boeing had to tone down its lobbying after being roasted in the Korean media, which editorialized that Washington was trying to force Seoul's hand. "We've been kind of frustrated by the whole thing," says Skip Bennett, a former F-15 pilot who heads Boeing's Korea programme. "Anything we do is negative in the press. There are so many falsehoods that are really just unbelievable."

More lobbying seems likely. On June 19 a group of American lawmakers including Bond and Gephardt wrote to Bush asking for his intervention on Boeing's behalf. Boeing's Bennett plays down reports of the line's imminent demise, and is confident the F-15K can win on merit: "It's not an old airplane. The Koreans are getting the best of both worlds-a battle-proven airplane with the most advanced avionics."

The choice isn't so easy for Seoul. The wrong decision could saddle the air force with the perception that its fighters are third-rate. This would undermine a campaign designed to turn South Korea into a regional power within 20 years, with a view to holding its own on the geopolitical scene after any reunification with the North. "We're in a difficult situation," complains a South Korean intelligence official. "Choosing the right aircraft is the nucleus of our forces' upgrade. But our relations with the US are in crisis. In this situation, how can we make the US mad? We have to choose the American offer."

The fact that the Americans hadn't sewn up the South Korean deal surprised Eurofighter. Its bid has only gained steam in recent weeks, and its aircraft is believed to have done well in testing by the South Korean air force last year. "It has taken time to convince European Union nations to take part. They assumed the Americans would win," said the European diplomat helping Eurofighter. Dassault's Rafale was earlier out of the gate. Defence analysts say its smaller sales make it desperate to land a big contract. Russia's Rosvoorouzhenie is offering its Sukhoi Su-35, but is widely considered the least likely to win.

Seoul has responded to lobbying by making the selection process the most transparent ever in its military procurement. Scandals over military sales plagued previous governments. In the early 1990s the air force's selection of the McDonnell Douglas (since taken over by Boeing) F/A-18 fighter and attack aircraft was overturned, allegedly by policy-makers who favoured Lockheed Martin's F-16 Falcon. At around the same time Lockheed Martin's P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft beat a French rival, despite the navy's preference for the European bid.

Anxious not to be accused of improper intervention, President Kim has ordered Defence Minister Kim Dong Shin to review all four defence contracts currently on offer. "They wanted to cool down a highly competitive atmosphere," says an air force officer. Pilots even refused dinner invitations from bidders while testing their fighters. As a source attached to one of the bids says: "If ever there's a project where somebody could get hauled in front of the National Assembly, it's this one."

Who will win? Each bidder plays up its strengths and uses whatever leverage it can. Boeing lauds the F-15's battle record (100.5 kills against zero losses), and technology upgrades that it says bring the F-15K up to speed with fourth-generation fighters. Dassault, which is believed to have impressed with the testing of its Rafale, plays up its willingness to transfer all the technology its aircraft has. Cesare Gianni, president of Eurofighter International, points to the 620 Typhoons on order. "That takes production up to 2018 and gives us more credibility."

In Boeing's biggest challenge in South Korea, history is on its side. South Korea's air force equipment is almost 100% American, and choosing more US aircraft would ensure that their weapons systems are compatible. Boeing says the Rafale's weapons systems are not compatible with US ones. (Dassault was unavailable for comment on this claim). Eurofighter may suffer from the bureaucracy inherent in a consortium of British, German, Italian and Spanish companies. Key South Korean Defence Ministry officials are understood to favour the F-15K, stressing its interoperability with the rest of South Korea's air force. "Many people say the F-15 is an old plane, but that's not exact," says an officer involved in the acquisition.

Other factors may make it more politically correct for South Korea to choose Europe. The importance of face should not be underestimated. Japan has F-15 fighters. That may prompt South Korea to one-up its former colonial master by choosing a newer design. "That's something working against the F-15," said a defence attaché at a Western embassy.Also, Boeing is a front runner for two other big deals to supply South Korea with early-warning aircraft and attack helicopters. That would be some compensation if it lost the FX. American interests would be further assisted if Massachusetts-based Raytheon wins a contract to supply surface-to-air missiles, for which it is the favourite. And in any case, some analysts don't believe Washington would risk harming its alliance with South Korea by reacting harshly to an adverse decision on the FX.

Kim Dae Jung may choose to postpone this painful decision until after the presidential election in December 2002. This might be politically safer, but eventually he or his successor will have to decide. Until then, the only certainty in this secrecy-shrouded deal is plenty more late nights at the Defence Ministry.