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The World in 2006
Mariano Aguirre
Radio Nederland Wereldomroep, 2 January 2006
Spanish
Predicting what societies will do is impossible. But according to the historian Eric
Hobsbawm, trends can be identified. For example, there will
be more evidence of environmental degradation while at the same time there will
continue to be tension between the States and organizations who want to bolster the
treaties that protect the planet (for example, the Kyoto Protocol) and governments who
are opposed to them.
In the foreseeable future, there will be more natural catastrophes,
such as those that happened in the Caribbean, in parts of the US and in Asia during the
last 13 months. Social response to these catastrophes will be uneven: some will receive more attention
than others, and some will be forgotten, especially after the first burst of attention, as is
happening at the moment in Pakistan. At the same time, the social response will hide the
fact that state and multilateral funds for humanitarian catastrophe and crisis prevention
is still scarce. As Jan Egeland, Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA),
said recently, "it is not very civilized to have a system where we have to pass the hat
around to collect money everytime there is a threat of deaths and massive suffering".
The trend in the decline of warfare between States and within States will continue,
although some conflicts will continue flaring up in the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Sudan (Darfur), Uganda, the Ivory Coast, Chechnya and Sri Lanka.
Executive Power as opposed to Judicial power
A significant prediction is that, in some countries, the strengthening of executive power
over legislative power will become more noticeable. George W. Bush's administration is
following just such a policy with the aim of consolidating presidential power over
Congress and this can be seen in areas such as spying on citizens without legislative
authorization and Vicepresident Richard Cheney's insistence on having the right to order
the use of torture in interrogations. Tony Blair's attempts to restrict prisoners' rights
follow the same trend. European and other governments' complicity in the illegal
transfers of prisoners by the US form part of this anti-democratic trend.
Alvaro Uribe in Colombia has the freedom of presidential action with strong popular
support and this same freedom is exercised by president Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.
Saskia Sassen, in her research, sees this strengthening of presidentialism as an attack on the liberal democratic State.
States in a balancing act
The strengthening of the authoritatian state under the guise of democracy is related to
another significant trend: the return to a world system that revolves around a series of
strong States. This is not new in itself because states have always defended their
national interests. But in the last ten years, both the countries who see enormous
advantages in globalism's economic interactions and those who are opposed to it, have
reached the conclusion that we are moving towards a world in which the state will have
less power than other actors - transnationals, a diverse range of multilateral
organizations and civil society – and it is these actors who will define national and
international policy.
Without any doubt the state, and in particular some weak states, have lost a great deal
of decision making power, and it is a fact that financial globalization, free trade, ever
faster communications and production delocation have changed the concept of the
sovereign nation-state. At the same time, multilateral treaties concerning human rights,
environmental issues, the fight against poverty and global trade are under attack or
increasingly difficult to achieve. This trend will weaken the United Nations even more, as
it is the main space for multilateral treaties. However, there will also be a return to the
strong state, to sovereignty and pride in national identity.
The return to nationalism can be seen, for example, in the industrial, commercial and
military upsurge in China. The Chinese government is guiding the country towards
regional leadership in most of Asia, with a growing influence through investment,
domestic market demand, and military agreements. Likewise, by means of different
mechanisms, Beijing's influence is becoming more powerful and it has displaced the US
and Japan in the Asia-Pacific zone, which also comprises Myanmar, South Korea, Japan,
Vietnam, Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India among others.
South-East Asia, with a population of 3,300 million in the whole region, will provide a
massive cheap workforce and this in turn will lower salaries and workers' benefits in
other countries around the globe. At the same time, demand for energy will rise and
keep the price of petrol high.
The decline of the US
India is also attracting capital and gaining market share. And it is widening its diplomatic
influence thanks to links with Russia, the US and Iran, and a delicate balance with China.
South Africa and Brazil in South America, are following the same trend. At the same
time, the latter two countries, together with India and China, are forging trade alliances.
In Russia, Vladimir Putin's authoritarian government is taking advantage of the petrol
price rise to reinforce his policy of domestic presidentialism and foreign unilateralism,
thus sending signals to the West that it is better to support him than to risk sudden
democratic instability.
Since the end of the Cold War, the US has been at the forefront regarding the trend
towards unilateralism. However, ironically, the US is now in a very difficult situation.
Military expenditure, which equals that of all the countries in the world put together, the
war in Irak, and its trade deficit with China and other Asian countries, have created
structural weaknesses that some analysists consider to be the expression of a long and
dangerous decline and not merely circumstantial.
The failure in Irak, official passiveness and inefficiency during Hurricane Katrina, together
with government corruption, could all be attributed to this decline, and are not just
government errors. These structural weaknesses produce attempts to reassert American
exceptionalism as revealed by the nationalist religiousness represented by Bush's
government. Some intellectuals (Neil Fergusson, Michael Ignatieff, Robert Kaplan, among
others) propose neo-imperial explanations to justify Washington's need to become a
Republican empire.
Nationalism and identity
The return of nationalism with strong identity signs can also be seen in the coalition of
indigenous groups, trade unions and social movements which brought Evo Morales to
power in Bolivia. The indigenous movement, the refusal to follow neo-liberal economic
dictates and the right to use their own energy resources, are emerging issues in Latin
America. They appear and disappear in populist movements and discourses in Ecuador,
Peru, Bolivia and Venezuela. At the same time, the resistance to neo-liberalism identified
with local élites and to the US, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund,
provide a social basis to the moderate governments of Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil.
Another case of national identity is that of Iran. The government of Mahamoud Ahmadi-
Nejad will continue with its nuclear progamme for three reasons: first, to be a regional
power and to dissuade other states from attacking it and thus avoid suffering a war like
Irak; second, to restrain the US from committing an attack; and third, to reaffirm the
fact that nobody can externally impose national policy. Its statements against Israel can
be seen as populism adapted to the Arab world.
In neighbouring Iraq, the slow withdrawal of the US and the UK will not help to prevent
the rise of three nationalisms: the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds will tend to construct their
own states, officially or unofficially. Within this trend towards new nationalist and
religious quasi-states, the poor and conflict ridden Gaza strip will emerge, constantly in
tension with the Fatah movement and their factions, and the emerging Islamism of
Hamas. This movement shows the pragmatism of religious armed movements that have
a strong social legitimacy and they are obtaining good electoral results in Turkey, Saudi
Arabia, Morocco, Lebanon, Palestine and Egypt. "The islamists," according to a Financial
Times editorial, "are part of the future of the Middle East and their participation in
political processes is the best option in order to moderate their radical views".
Political Islamist identity also unites, in a somewhat mythical way, a diverse range of
groups, movements, ideologies and governments; from the British youths who carried
out the terrorist attack in London in July 2005 to the armed groups that operate in
Afghanistan and Irak.
China's global strength, the trend towards authoritarian presidentialism in Western
democracies and the rise of private identities in opposition to the citizens, constitute a
powerful challenge to the idea that democracy is a horizon towards which, infallibly, all
States within the international system tend. Likewise, these issues pose serious problems
for post-state European unity. Negative votes rejecting the Constitution and rioting in the
streets involving poor immigrants' children are worrying signs. In the foreseeable future,
cosmopolitan globalization, democracy and state integration are at risk.
Copyright Radio Nederland Wereldomroep
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