Lula's Presidential Victory in Brazil Opens up Challenge From Below

Luis Inácio 'Lula' da Silva's resounding electoral victory with over 60
percent of the vote places Brazilian politics on a new footing. While
many on the left remain critical of Lula for the limited reforms of his
first term, his very victory has consolidated a shift in the country's
possibilities for deeper social transformations. As Francisco Meneses of
IBASE, the Brazilian Institute of Social Economic Analysis, says, 'The
country is more polarized, it can no longer move back to the old order.
The economy is different and social expenditures have been augmented to
a level that is important for the lower strata of society.'

A major reason for Lula's resounding victory is due to the support of
the poor and dispossesed who make up the majority of Brazil's
population. Even in the first round of the elections on October 8 when
Lula fell short of an absolute majority, garnering 48 percent of the
vote versus his leading opponent's 41 percent, the poor, particularly in
the country's impoverished northeast, provided the decisive margin of
support. As Darci Frigo of the Land Rights Center in the state of Paraná
states, 'Agrarian reform may have been limited in Lula's first term, but
thanks to the Zero Hunger program and direct income subsidies many
families have more food and are better off.'

In its international relations a victory by Lula's opponent, Geraldo
Alckmin, would have reversed the increasingly independent stance that
Brazil has adopted. Alckmin endorsed the neoliberal free trade position
advocated by the Bush administration and would have pursued the policy
of privatizing the economy that has favored the multinational
corporations. Regarding relations with the South, Alckmin attacked Lula
for caving in to Bolivia's nationalization in July of the holdings of
Brazil's Petrobras. This semi-autonomous state enterprise owned large
natural gas reserves in Bolivia that supplied over half of Brazil's
domestic natural gas needs.

Lula responded by insisting that he would look after Brazil's interests
while respecting Bolivia's national automony. Just this weekend as
Brazilian voters went to the polls, Petrobras concluded a new agreement
with Bolivia that cedes formal control over natural gas reserves to
Bolivia's state owned company and significantly increases the gas
revenues that remain in Bolivian coffers. As Francisco Meneses of Ibase
notes, 'Brazil under Lula is aligning itself with the Southern bloc of
nations, not subverting its interests to the United States.'

But many in Brazil remain skeptical of the chances for significant
advances in a second Lula administration. Marcos Arruda of PACS, a
research center on social and economic alternatives based in Rio de
Janeiro, is highly critical of Lula. He notes that 'the destruction of
the environoment, particularly in the Amazon basin has continued apace,'
and 'the government has practiced irresponsible fiscal policies focus on
repaying the international debt and keeping national interest rates high
while social spending falls far short of what the county needs.'
During Lula's first term, most of the country's social movements felt
that their agendas were largely neglected as Lula pursued economic and
social stabilization policies. Darci Frigo of the Land Rights Center
states, 'The demands for a profound agrarian reform program advocated by
the MST, the Landless Movement, were ignored. Some limited spending was
directed to social and educational programs for the landless, but the
large landed estates of the country were barely touched as the
government encouraged agro-exports.'

While Lula in the final election round did come out forsocial spending,
Brazil's robust social movements are not sitting idly by, waiting on
Lula's volition. Seventeen social movements lead by the MST and the the
Unified Workers Central mobilizied in the major cities of Brazil during
the final days of the campaign. They released an action manifesto,
titled 'Thirteen Points for A Social Policy for Brazil.' Commiting
themselves to 'an intensification of the popular and democratic
struggles throughout the country' during Lula's second term, they
outlined a program that called for profound changes in education,
health, fiscal policies, and agrarian reform, all to be carried out
'with the effective participation of the people and their social
organizations.'

As Friar Betto, a radical Brazilian theologican notes, 'Lula owes us
much based on the promises he has made during his presidential
campaigns.' Even more than Lula's first campaign in 2002, this election
polarized the country's electorate, laying out two distinct visions.
Francisco Meneses says, 'Perhaps Lula on his own would not change much,
but the reality is that the social movements realize that this election
is their victory and they intend to sharpen the agitation for real
transformations from below.'

First published by Center for the Study of the Americas. Copyright 2006 Roger Burbach