Kachin conflict puts Myanmar reforms to the test
Struggle in resource-rich state weighs in on new political system. The Kachin conflict is a unique test case, says Tom Kramer, a Myanmar-based analyst with the Transnational Institute.
Fighting has quietened since its January peak, when the military launched unprecedented aerial assaults on rebel positions near the Chinese border. In KIA strongholds, tentative willingness to talk has led to two recent meetings with government peace negotiators – both involving China.
But the talks conspicuously lacked top military commanders on either side, and were marked by strong Kachin suspicion of the government’s agenda. Attitudes in all camps visited are almost identical. People talk of their desire to return home and their resolve to wait for the right circumstances. “Of course we want to go back.
But promises of land and ceasefire are not enough. We want real peace that gives Kachin people real rights, over land, over our future: we will not go back until then,” says Mai Kaw Naw, a widow who lives in Tatkone camp. The government is dealing with other pressing refugee issues, including more than 125,000 mainly Rohingya Muslims displaced by sectarian violence in western Rakhine state.
“Armed violence should be ending, not resuming, under the new political system,” he said. “The Kachin crisis has now become a test for how the government will address old injustices.. If compromise can be found, progress could be rapid. If not, then another generation of conflicts will be likely.”