Green Industrial Policy in North Africa Between Energy Sovereignty, Authoritarian Governance and Neocolonial Extraction

Green industrial policy in North Africa faces structural tensions between ambitious renewable energy targets and persistent patterns of neocolonial resource extraction. Drawing on case studies from Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt, export-focused green hydrogen initiatives, privatisation agendas driven by international financial institutions, and the instrumentalisation of green infrastructure in occupied territories illustrate how energy transitions risk deepening dependency rather than promoting genuine sovereignty. Over the past decade, North African countries have emerged as continental leaders in renewable energy deployment, hosting nearly half of Africa's installed wind capacity and approximately one-fifth of grid-based solar capacity. Morocco aspires to achieve 52 per cent renewable energy by 2030, whilst Tunisia has set a target of 35 per cent, and Egypt has mobilised substantial expansion of renewable capacity.

North Africa's green transition reproduces historical asymmetries between the Global North and Global South through mechanisms of green extractivism and structural adjustment despite substantial renewable energy deployment. Progressive green industrial policy requires rejecting neocolonial frameworks, asserting resource sovereignty, democratising energy planning, and building South-South cooperation networks capable of countering Northern capital dominance. Without fundamental power restructuring, renewable energy risks becoming greenwash for ongoing exploitation. Beneath the veneer of environmental progress lies a more troubling reality: North Africa's green transition is unfolding amid significant global asymmetries that reproduce historical patterns of resource extraction serving external interests. These dynamics reveal how climate imperatives can be instrumentalised to serve neocolonial agendas, converting environmental necessity into a mechanism for reinforcing peripheral incorporation into global capitalist systems.

Renewable energy transitions in North Africa, framed as climate action, merit scrutiny of their structures to serve Northern capital accumulation rather than regional development. Key questions include: How do export-focused green hydrogen projects reproduce historical patterns of resource extractivism that characterised colonial relationships? What mechanisms enable international financial institutions to leverage climate finance for privatisation agendas that subordinate energy transitions to financial sector profits? How do authoritarian governance structures exclude democratic participation and marginalised communities from energy transition planning? Can South-South cooperation networks and resource sovereignty frameworks offer viable alternatives to neocolonial dependency patterns that have historically constrained Global South development and perpetuated unequal exchange?

A critical political economy framework analyses green industrial policy in North Africa by synthesising government renewable energy strategies, World Bank Country Climate and Development Reports, International Monetary Fund programme documents, civil society monitoring reports from Western Sahara, and academic literature on green colonialism and energy extractivism. Neo-extractivism, structural adjustment, and democratic deficits serve as analytical dimensions for understanding how renewable energy transitions can paradoxically entrench rather than transcend dependency relations characteristic of Global South subordination to Global North capital. Southern perspectives and insights from engaged scholarship with anti-colonial social movements and policy networks across the region inform the analysis. Research explores energy transitions through the lens of political economy, examining ownership structures, capital accumulation patterns, technological dependencies, and democratic governance deficits that shape renewable energy expansion across North Africa.

North Africa's Renewable Energy Transition: Context and Asymmetries

North Africa constitutes Africa's largest energy market with relatively advanced infrastructure and universal electricity access except in Sudan and Libya. Vast renewable energy potential substantially exceeds current deployment levels. Over the past decade, North African countries have attracted significant international financing for renewable energy assets, primarily through auction-based mechanisms in Egypt and Morocco, with utility-scale wind and solar as the primary beneficiaries. Egypt and Morocco together account for more than two-thirds of Africa's installed wind and solar capacity, reflecting their position as leading renewable energy developers on the continent. Morocco's installed renewable capacity reached approximately 12 gigawatts by 2025, with around 5.4 GW actively generating from renewables. Egypt targets 25.1 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, while Tunisia aims for a comprehensive transformation of its energy sector through renewable energy. Morocco's Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex represents the world's largest concentrated solar power plant, symbolising the region's technical and infrastructural capabilities for renewable energy deployment.

However, this expansion requires contextualisation within the context of global asymmetries. North Africa auctioned 4.8 GW of renewable capacity between 2014 and 2023, far behind Latin America's 44 GW annual average or China's 45 GW, despite possessing 22 to 26 per cent of the world's solar radiation. The gap between North Africa's renewable resource endowment and actual deployment levels reveals how structural constraints, financing limitations, and policy frameworks oriented toward foreign rather than local benefit limit renewable energy development. The transition is driven less by autonomous North African development strategies than by external demand from wealthier economies. The European Union's hydrogen strategy explicitly positions North Africa as a supply zone, creating a structural dynamic whereby North African resources flow northward to meet European energy security objectives. Geographical reorientation of energy flows from South to North reproduces colonial- era patterns of resource extraction, updating mechanisms of accumulation to align with contemporary climate imperatives whilst maintaining fundamental relationships of subordination between resource-rich peripheries and wealthy centres of capital accumulation. Energy transitions occurring within these structural constraints reflect enduring patterns of unequal exchange and peripheral incorporation into capitalist systems organised around Northern advantage.

North Africa's renewable energy transition, whilst substantial in capacity deployment, reproduces rather than transcends neocolonial patterns. Export-focused hydrogen projects prioritise European capital accumulation over North African development. Privatisation frameworks are driven by international financial institutions that subordinate energy transitions to financial-sector profits. Occupation territories become sites for green infrastructure expansion, serving resource appropriation and territorial control. Authoritarian governance structures exclude democratic participation and marginalised community voices. Environmental cost socialisation is profound, as water stress and displacement burden vulnerable populations whilst benefits flow to foreign capital. Progressive alternatives rooted in resource sovereignty, energy justice, and South-South cooperation exist. Morocco's renewable energy potential, if oriented toward domestic industrialisation and regional development rather than European hydrogen supply, could support progressive green industrial policy centred on continental integration. Tunisia's renewable energy deployment could prioritise public ownership and democratic energy planning rather than World Bank- mandated privatisation. Egypt's renewable energy expansion could serve local development needs through publicly owned utilities and democratic governance. Alternatives require rejecting neocolonial frameworks and investing political will in asserting North African agency and development priorities.

North Africa's green transition illustrates how renewable energy deployment, absent fundamental power restructuring, risks reproducing rather than transcending neocolonial relations. Export-focused hydrogen strategies prioritise European security over North African development. Privatisation frameworks subordinate energy transitions to financial sector accumulation. Occupation territories become sites for green colonialism. Authoritarian governance excludes democratic participation. Environmental imperatives can be weaponised to serve geopolitical interests and capital accumulation rather than advancing genuine sustainability and justice for affected populations and ecosystems.

Alternatives exist. A progressive green industrial policy centred on sovereignty, justice, and South-South cooperation can harness North Africa's exceptional renewable energy potential to advance continental development and liberation. Climate change must be recognised as fundamentally a justice issue, with Global South nations bearing climate impacts yet bearing minimal responsibility for emissions, deserving material support to advance transformation. Local energy knowledge systems and community-based renewable energy development models offer alternatives to technocratic, export- oriented approaches dominating current policy frameworks.

Absent fundamental reorientation, renewable energy risks becoming greenwash for ongoing extraction and exploitation, where green labels obscure relationships of control and dependency between Northern corporations and Southern territories. Severe climate impacts facing North Africa, including intensified water scarcity, desertification, agricultural disruption, and displacement, require rapid energy transformation. Nevertheless, transformation must serve North African populations rather than distant European consumers or multinational capital pursuing profit maximisation.

Climate justice requires recognising Northern historical responsibilities for atmospheric carbon accumulation, ending neocolonial extraction patterns, democratising energy transitions, and empowering marginalised communities as decision-makers. Renewable energy potential, technical capability, and financial resources exist. What remains is the political will to centre justice over profit, sovereignty over dependency, and democracy over technocracy. Building such a will requires not technical solutions but political struggles by North African workers, communities, and social movements demanding that energy transitions serve liberation rather than reinforcing subordination to global capital structures. Renewable energy's destiny is to become either a tool for emancipation or a mechanism for updating exploitation to accommodate climate imperatives. Regional actors hold decision-making power regarding which trajectory North Africa pursues, requiring assertion of agency and resource sovereignty against Northern capital and international financial institutions.

A progressive green industrial policy in North Africa requires an immediate reorientation toward sovereignty, justice, and regional development. First, resource sovereignty must be asserted through technology transfer requirements, local content mandates, and compulsory licensing, thereby replacing intellectual property monopolies that limit access to technology. North African economies must develop domestic renewable manufacturing capabilities rather than remaining permanent assembly locations for imported components. State investment in public renewable companies can compete effectively with multinationals whilst maintaining democratic accountability. Local manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage would create stable, skilled employment and retain more value chain benefits within national economies. Technology transfer provisions in international agreements should require multinational corporations to establish training and research facilities in host countries, thereby building national technical capabilities rather than perpetuating long-term dependence on foreign expertise.

Second, Western Sahara occupation must end, and Polisario's representational authority must be recognised internationally through UN processes. Green infrastructure cannot legitimise territorial appropriation and illegal occupation of UN- listed non-self-governing territories. International climate frameworks must distinguish between renewable energy produced in occupied versus sovereign territory and refuse to grant international recognition to projects that violate international law and UN Security Council resolutions. Climate justice demands alignment with broader justice principles regarding self-determination and territorial sovereignty, establishing a crucial precedent that environmental progress cannot override human rights protections and colonial occupation.

Third, energy planning must be democratised through mandatory community participation, labour movement involvement, and the inclusion of civil society in decision- making. Energy constitutes a fundamental public good requiring democratic governance accountable to affected populations. Transitions imposed through technocratic frameworks serving financial interests generate neither justice nor sustainability. Energy democracy frameworks should ensure that affected communities have decision-making power over energy infrastructure development, location, and ownership structures affecting their territories and futures.

Fourth, international financial institution conditionalities mandating privatisation must be rejected as development conditions. Public utilities must be strengthened through transparent governance, workforce development, and integration with broader development strategies. Public ownership permits aligning energy transitions with public benefit rather than profit maximisation. Public utilities can prioritise universal energy access and affordability over shareholder returns, making energy a right rather than a commodity.