In recent years the buzzwords of ‘sustainability’ and the ‘green economy’ have been used in the Gulf states as much as they have been anywhere else. The GCC countries are keen to portray themselves as eager participants in environmental change.5 This is most apparent in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, the three countries that are the focus of this article. These countries have promoted their investment in renewable energy and have publicised a programme of environmental modernisation, including plans for ‘decarbonised oil and gas’, a circular economy, vertical farming, and an array of technology-based solutions.6,7 However, these conceptions obfuscate an actuality that is very far from the principle and practice of environmental sustainability. In reality, these countries have no intention of curbing their oil production and have articulated their commitment to expanding production for as long as there is demand. In this sense, the Gulf’s position is completely aligned with that of most other hydrocarbon exporters and oil companies.
This position has been explicitly stated by Gulf officials. In the summer of 2021, the Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud, communicated it with crystal clarity. According to a Bloomberg report, at a private meeting the prince commented on his country’s intention to continue producing and selling oil no matter what. ‘We are still going to be the last man standing’, he said, ‘and every molecule of hydrocarbon will come out’.8 This sentiment has also been echoed by other officials in the region. In 2022, the UAE Minister of State for Climate and Food Security, Mariam Al Mheiri, stated that “for as long as the world needs oil and gas, we're going to give it to them.”9 This intention to protect the value of hydrocarbon assets and meet demand is mirrored in the plans of every single Gulf state to ramp up its production of oil and gas.10
In light of this unwavering commitment to oil and gas, how do renewables fit into the energy policies of the Gulf states? Firstly, it should be underscored that present progress on the transition to renewable energy within the Gulf states remains very slow. In 2019, the UAE had the largest production of renewable energy within its energy mix, out of all GCC states, with a figure of 0.67 percent of the country’s total national energy consumption.11 This is far lower than many other non-GCC countries.12 However, some Gulf countries have said that they intend to change this. The UAE has announced a commitment to meet 50 percent of its electricity demand with ‘clean energy’, using a combination of renewables, nuclear and ‘clean coal’, by 2050.13 Saudi Arabia intends to achieve the same target by 2030.14
These are highly ambitious policies and they should be treated with some scepticism. Making such declarations allows these countries to present the appearance of pursuing environmental sustainability. The commitment to the transition to renewable energy is thus part of a broader apparent commitment to environmental sustainability, which is also manifested in public exhibitions, such as Dubai’s Expo 2020, which was pervaded with narratives about sustainability.15 Narratives about ecological consciousness also underpin major developments, such as Neom, the new futuristic city that is planned for Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. According to the promotional material, Neom will be a ‘blueprint for tomorrow in which humanity progresses without compromise to the health of the planet’.16 In some cases these public relations campaigns result in pronouncements that are patently false. The organisers of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar claimed that it was the first carbon-neutral tournament in history, an assertion that was quickly debunked by journalists and activists.17
Irrespective of the questionable and superficial nature of these claims, this hyperbolic greenwashing serves an important purpose. It helps to obfuscate the reality of the Gulf states’ function as major producers of oil and gas in the global economy. It allows these countries to maintain their legitimacy on the international stage and ensure that they are central actors in debates over energy politics. On the one hand, the commitment to oil and gas will ensure that the GCC states will retain their control over energy markets, manifested in the leading role of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). On the other hand, the image of sustainability and environmental consciousness portrays the Gulf states as important stakeholders in renewable energy markets and a lower-carbon future. One example is the next United Nations Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP), COP28 in 2023, which will be held in Dubai. These global climate summits, which have been taking place for three decades, are intended to lead to an international agreement that will result in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that could curb climate change. However, in the UAE, the negotiations at the COP 28 will be presided over by the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), a move that one activist described as ‘putting the fox in charge of the henhouse’.18 This obviously presents a contradiction, but it is one that characterises sustainability politics everywhere.
Aside from politics, however, it is likely that the Gulf states will eventually take steps to increase the level of renewables in their domestic energy mix. They may not attain the rapid transition that they have pledged to achieve, but renewable energy is likely to take hold in the heart of world oil extraction. In order to understand this, we need to look deeper into the configuration of the region’s energy economy and the requirements of a social metabolism in a hot and arid ecology.19 These countries have very high levels of domestic power consumption. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have some of the highest levels of electricity consumption per capita in the world,20 and all of the GCC states have consumption per capita that is higher than the average for high-income countries. One cause of this high usage is the domestic consumption of energy for air conditioning, a demand that has been exacerbated by subsidised energy, although this support is now being rolled back by many GCC governments. Another cause of this demand arises from the production of desalinated water, which accounts for the majority of domestic water consumption in most Gulf states. The desalination of water is a highly energy-intensive process. In Saudi Arabia, for example, it accounts for around 20 percent of energy consumption.21 One estimate suggests that desalination plants in the Gulf states account for 0.2 percent of the world’s electricity consumption.22 As a result of economic and demographic growth, this energy demand has expanded in recent years. In Saudi Arabia, for example, consumption of energy has more than doubled from 1,335 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2000 to 3,007 TWh in 2021.23 Similar increases can be observed elsewhere in the region.
This huge level of energy consumption is becoming a costly hindrance for the Gulf economies. Electricity in the Gulf countries is mostly provided by oil and gas-fired power stations. As a result of the increasing domestic demand, increasing amounts of oil are being diverted away from export to global consumers, who pay market rates. The internal demand for oil shows no sign of abating and some estimates suggest that the domestic consumption of oil could continue to increase by as much as 5 percent a year.24 One study suggests that by 2030 the internal consumption of oil in Saudi Arabia could match the amount that is exported.25 These trends are spurring the expansion of renewable energy production in the Gulf states. In these countries the green energy shift is actually impelled by the need to retain oil for export: it is motivated by a commitment to fiscal sustainability, rather than environmental concerns.