The day after the election the narrative of the media was clear. Portuguese voters were not opposed to austerity and had voted for a neoliberal government for yet another four years. Progressive parties were reported to be in disarray. A more nuanced reading of electoral results – and the ensuing media campaign against a now viable left-wing agreement – shows how skewed against progressive solutions the mainstream commentariat actually is.
Austerity, Portuguese-style
For the better part of the last 15 years, people living in Portugal have faced stagnation. Economic and social decline accelerated after 2009, as initial austerity measures were enforced by the minority government led by then Prime-Minister José Sócrates. In 2011, as the first Memorandum was signed with the Troika (the European Commission, European Central Bank and the IMF), austerity took a harsher turn. A broad privatisation programme was accelerated and welfare cutbacks were enforced. Youth unemployment mounted on the back of increasing precarization.
It is important to note though that Portuguese-style austerity was less harsh than its Greek counterpart. Partly because of how Portuguese society and state structures work, and partly because of the way austerity was applied to specific sectors such as health, austerity policies were less intense and all-encompassing as the experience in Greece – even if the actual burden for people was still significant. Out of pocket private payments for public healthcare for example now make up 30 per cent of total healthcare expenditure.
Together these measures had their human toll. Emigration from the country surged, similar to rates in the 1960s, as a large swathe of mainly young people went to France and Germany. There are no definite statistics on outward migration flows, but estimates point to half a million individuals leaving the country since 2011. Most are highly-skilled individuals educated through the public education system. Child and elderly poverty rates increased as a result of cutbacks, since welfare transfers are often the only safety net in Portugal for at-risk social groups. The incumbent government refuses, to this day, to admit guilt or responsibility for these consequences. The country is now poorer and increasingly divergent economically from its EU partners.
People living in Portugal have not reacted passively to these developments. Demonstrations across the country on 12 March 2011 tore into the national consensus on austerity and forced Portuguese society to face up to the scourges of labour precarity, youth unemployment and the end of collective bargaining. On 15 September 2012, the largest demonstrations in a generation took place throughout the country.
A number of general strikes were also called by CGTP-IN, the largest trade union confederation, however unions have definitely become weaker social and political actors due to economic transformations, as the Portuguese economy is now service-based and predicated on a low-wage, job-insecure model. Moreover, unions have failed to adapt to new work environments nor responded effectively to demands by younger workers. With neoliberal policy entrenched, unions have faced constant attacks by business interests embedded in the Portuguese state apparatus.
New political actors and formations have emerged though, including alliances that ran for Parliament in 2015: LIVRE/Tempo de Avançar, Nós, Cidadãos and AGIR, among others. This has been matched by the growth of self-organized initiatives in urban centres. In this context, a right-wing win in the 4October election seemed both astonishing and disheartening.
Election stalemate
However the supposed right-wing victory was not so clearcut. There was no real electoral gain for the incumbent government coalition which brings together Partido Social Democrata (PSD), and Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular (CDS-PP). The former is led by Pedro Passos Coelho, a liberal technocrat, and the latter is run by Paulo Portas, a former journalist who aptly reinvented himself and the party as modern conservatives. Both parties are members of the European Popular Party grouping.
In 2011, these parties ran on independent platforms and agreed to join forces. In 2015, running on a common platform named Portugal à Frente (Portugal Ahead), Passos Coelho and Portas lost up to 820,000 votes. This is significant. Abstention rose – as people are increasingly disaffected from liberal politics and many young voters have emigrated - and some of these votes may have gone over to the left.
Post-election surveys are still to be released, but the most importance consequence is clear. There is no longer an absolute majority in Parliament. Portuguese politics is traditionally majoritarian in the sense that it requires a strong, single-party majority to maintain stability. The lack of an absolute majority in Parliament makes the incoming government’s task more difficult. In itself, this is neither new nor unique to Portugal. But proposed neoliberal policy measures, such as partial social security privatisation and the completion of State enterprise privatisation programmes, will stay on the backburner.
It is unlikely that the government will be able to deepen austerity measures on its own account to the extent it did during the years 2011 to 2015. From now on, all structural reform policy will almost certainly be enforced from Brussels and Frankfurt.
Checks and balances in Portuguese democratic institutions make a stable minority government unlikely. This is why the role of the Partido Socialista, the Socialist Party has become more important than ever.
As the main opposition party, the Portuguese Socialist Party is one of the more centrist social-democratic parties in Europe. It has veered to the right in recent years, making it virtually indistinguishable from the Social-Democrats. In many ways, it is a social-liberal political formation: its MPs support progressive causes, such as same-sex marriage and a modicum of welfare support. But the party subscribes to the European market-driven consensus while fully supporting Europeanism as a core pillar of Portuguese identity.
It is resolutely pro-eurozone and until recently held that “austerity-lite”, a more equitable distribution of cutbacks, was a desirable path towards balanced budgets. It broadly agrees with the Fiscal Treaty regime. Until two weeks ago, it was difficult to establish clear differences between the Social Democrats and the Socialists. Their electoral dominance augmented their political similarity. António Costa, leader of the party, performed poorly in the electoral campaign. Thus, the Socialists were unable to benefit from losses by the right-wing coalition. Instead, their loss was the left-wing’s gain.
The Left Bloc doubled its votes and will form a 19-strong group of representatives in the next Parliament. The Portuguese Communist Party, long held to be in decline and infamously declared the big loser by several news outlets on election night, increased its representation to 17 MPs. There will now be 36 MPs out of 230 to the left of the Socialists in the next government, despite long predictions of a resounding defeat.